Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Water under the bridge: Dallas top in the nation for recession recovery

Texas jobs and real estate help formed a bridge over the troubled waters of the national recession and guided the Dallas area to the banks of recovery, according to recently released data.

Research from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program ranked the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area third in the nation for best performance in recovering from the recession.

Brookings’ Metro Monitor looks at jobs, unemployment, output and house price indicators in 100 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas during the recession, recovery and in a combination of both time periods. The monitor ranked DFW/Arlington 12th in the nation during the recession, 18th during the recovery and third in its overall recession and recovery numbers.

Further Brookings’ data shows the area reached its peak jobs level in the first quarter of 2008 and its lowest level in the fourth quarter of 2009. While it experienced a 4.9 percent dip in job numbers during its recession, it had a positive 10.6 percent change in the recovery. Similarly, unemployment in the metro rose 4.1 points during the recession, but fell 2.5 points in the recovery, placing its unemployment rate at less than 6 percent today.

“I expect strong job and income growth in North Texas to continue to support a vigorous housing market and ongoing price appreciation,” said Robert Dye, chief economist atComerica Bank. “Not only is the North Texas economy growing strongly, but there is also pent-up demand from households who did not buy houses over the previous several years.”

Research on the Dallas’ area’s housing prices with mortgages purchased or securitized byFannie Mae or Freddie Mac showed values peaked in the first quarter of 2009 and fell to their lowest in the second quarter of 2011, reflecting a 13.6 percent decline. However, during the recovery, prices rose 7.7 percent.

“I think there’s going to be a great amount of competition for houses and prices are going to go through the roof,” said John Baen, professor of real estate in the University of North Texas college of business.
The metro’s gross product output of all goods and services produced also rose 22.9 percent after dipping 3 percent during the recession.

Three other Texas metro areas made the Metro Monitor’s top 10 for economic recovery: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (first), Houston-Sugarland-Baytown (second) and San Antonio-New Braunfels (fourth).

Korri Kezar- Dallas Business Journal